Howarth 12/14/2019
Finger Lakes Sierra Club, Fossil Free Tompkins & Sustainable Tompkins hosted a talk by Robert Howarth, the David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology at Cornell University, asking "Is Shale Gas a Major Driver of Recent Increases in Global Atmospheric Methane?" Howarth, who participated in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, among other things, is a world authority on the effects of human activity on the environment. This is a very technical and scientific presentation backed up by solid research. From his website, www.eeb.cornell.edu/howarth/index.php : “Our lab works broadly on biogeochemistry and ecosystem science, applied to a wide variety of both theoretical and practical questions. We enjoy trying to understand some of nature's complexity, and we believe strongly in applying objective science to sustaining the biosphere and human society. Our research encompasses a wide range of spatial scales, from microbial to ecosystem, regional, and global. Our research includes a broad range of inter-connected topical areas.” From www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/ : Abstract Methane has been rising rapidly in the atmosphere over the past decade, contributing to global climate change. Unlike the late 20th century when the rise in atmospheric methane was accompanied by an enrichment in the heavier carbon stable isotope (13C) of methane, methane in recent years has become more depleted in 13C. This depletion has been widely interpreted as indicating a primarily biogenic source for the increased methane. Here we show that part of the change may instead be associated with emissions from shale-gas and shale-oil development. Previous studies have not explicitly considered shale gas, even though most of the increase in natural gas production globally over the past decade is from shale gas. The methane in shale gas is somewhat depleted in 13C relative to conventional natural gas. Correcting earlier analyses for this difference, we conclude that shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade. How to cite. Howarth, R. W.: Ideas and perspectives: is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane?, Biogeosciences, 16, 3033–3046, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3033-2019, 2019. 1 Introduction Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas behind carbon dioxide causing global climate change, contributing approximately 1 W m−2 to warming when indirect effects are included compared to 1.66 W m−2 for carbon dioxide (IPCC, 2013). Unlike carbon dioxide, the climate system responds quickly to changes in methane emissions, and reducing methane emissions could provide an opportunity to immediately slow the rate of global warming (Shindell et al., 2012) and perhaps meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP21 target of keeping the planet well below 2 ∘C above the pre-industrial baseline (IPCC, 2018). Methane also contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone, with large adverse consequences for human health and agriculture. Considering these effects as well as climate change, Shindell (2015) estimated that the social cost of methane is 40 to 100 times greater than that for carbon dioxide: USD 2700 per ton for methane compared to USD 27 per ton for carbon dioxide when calculated with a 5 % discount rate and USD 6000 per ton for methane compared to USD 150 per ton for carbon dioxide when calculated with a 1.4 % discount rate... (see www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/ for more info) Camera, sound and editing by Bryan Root, Motherlode-pix.com with help from David Walczak. Music used with permission: "Ruben's Train"(trad.) from the album "Tractor Beam" performed by Richie Stearns, Rosy Newton & Willie Watson, at the Katherine Cornell Theater, recorded by Greg Harcourt © 2013 richiestearnsmusic.com rosienewtonmusic.com.
Finger Lakes Sierra Club, Fossil Free Tompkins & Sustainable Tompkins hosted a talk by Robert Howarth, the David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology at Cornell University, asking "Is Shale Gas a Major Driver of Recent Increases in Global Atmospheric Methane?" Howarth, who participated in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, among other things, is a world authority on the effects of human activity on the environment. This is a very technical and scientific presentation backed up by solid research. From his website, www.eeb.cornell.edu/howarth/index.php : “Our lab works broadly on biogeochemistry and ecosystem science, applied to a wide variety of both theoretical and practical questions. We enjoy trying to understand some of nature's complexity, and we believe strongly in applying objective science to sustaining the biosphere and human society. Our research encompasses a wide range of spatial scales, from microbial to ecosystem, regional, and global. Our research includes a broad range of inter-connected topical areas.” From www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/ : Abstract Methane has been rising rapidly in the atmosphere over the past decade, contributing to global climate change. Unlike the late 20th century when the rise in atmospheric methane was accompanied by an enrichment in the heavier carbon stable isotope (13C) of methane, methane in recent years has become more depleted in 13C. This depletion has been widely interpreted as indicating a primarily biogenic source for the increased methane. Here we show that part of the change may instead be associated with emissions from shale-gas and shale-oil development. Previous studies have not explicitly considered shale gas, even though most of the increase in natural gas production globally over the past decade is from shale gas. The methane in shale gas is somewhat depleted in 13C relative to conventional natural gas. Correcting earlier analyses for this difference, we conclude that shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade. How to cite. Howarth, R. W.: Ideas and perspectives: is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane?, Biogeosciences, 16, 3033–3046, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3033-2019, 2019. 1 Introduction Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas behind carbon dioxide causing global climate change, contributing approximately 1 W m−2 to warming when indirect effects are included compared to 1.66 W m−2 for carbon dioxide (IPCC, 2013). Unlike carbon dioxide, the climate system responds quickly to changes in methane emissions, and reducing methane emissions could provide an opportunity to immediately slow the rate of global warming (Shindell et al., 2012) and perhaps meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP21 target of keeping the planet well below 2 ∘C above the pre-industrial baseline (IPCC, 2018). Methane also contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone, with large adverse consequences for human health and agriculture. Considering these effects as well as climate change, Shindell (2015) estimated that the social cost of methane is 40 to 100 times greater than that for carbon dioxide: USD 2700 per ton for methane compared to USD 27 per ton for carbon dioxide when calculated with a 5 % discount rate and USD 6000 per ton for methane compared to USD 150 per ton for carbon dioxide when calculated with a 1.4 % discount rate... (see www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/ for more info) Camera, sound and editing by Bryan Root, Motherlode-pix.com with help from David Walczak. Music used with permission: "Ruben's Train"(trad.) from the album "Tractor Beam" performed by Richie Stearns, Rosy Newton & Willie Watson, at the Katherine Cornell Theater, recorded by Greg Harcourt © 2013 richiestearnsmusic.com rosienewtonmusic.com.